The HAVEN study-hydroxychloroquine in ANCA vasculitis evaluation-a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial: study protocol and statistical analysis plan.

BACKGROUND: Patients with non-severe ANCA-associated vasculitis (AAV) are often prescribed immunosuppressive medications that are associated with severe side effects and a reduced quality of life. There is an unmet need for safer effective treatments for these patients. Hydroxychloroquine is being explored due to its effect in similar autoimmune conditions such as systemic lupus erythematosus. METHODS: Double-blind, placebo-controlled multicentre trial recruiting 76 patients across 20 sites. Participants will be randomised 1:1 to hydroxychloroquine or placebo in addition to standard of care immunosuppressive therapies over the course of 52 weeks. A phase II selection design will be used to determine hdroxychloroquine's efficacy, using prednisolone dosage and Birmingham Vasculitis Activity Score as a measure of disease activity. Secondary outcomes will explore other elements of AAV progression, including disease flares and time to remission. DISCUSSION: This trial aims to explore Hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for patients with AAV. If effective, the need for immunosuppressive treatments such as prednisolone could be reduced. Hydroxychloroquine is safer, cheaper and has fewer adverse effects than conventional immunosuppressive treatments. This could improve patient outcomes while saving money for the NHS. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN: ISRCTN79334891. Registered 07 June 2021. EudraCT: 2018-001268-40. Registered 13 September 2019. CLINICALTRIALS: gov: NCT04316494. Registered 20 March 2020.

Nonadherence to systemic immune-modifying therapy in people with psoriasis during the COVID-19 pandemic: findings from a global cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: Nonadherence to immune-modifying therapy is a complex behaviour which, before the COVID-19 pandemic, was shown to be associated with mental health disorders in people with immune-mediated diseases. The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a rise in the global prevalence of anxiety and depression, and limited data exist on the association between mental health and nonadherence to immune-modifying therapy during the pandemic. OBJECTIVES: To assess the extent of and reasons underlying nonadherence to systemic immune-modifying therapy during the COVID-19 pandemic in individuals with psoriasis, and the association between mental health and nonadherence. METHODS: Online self-report surveys (PsoProtectMe), including validated screens for anxiety and depression, were completed globally during the first year of the pandemic. We assessed the association between anxiety or depression and nonadherence to systemic immune-modifying therapy using binomial logistic regression, adjusting for potential cofounders (age, sex, ethnicity, comorbidity) and country of residence. RESULTS: Of 3980 participants from 77 countries, 1611 (40.5%) were prescribed a systemic immune-modifying therapy. Of these, 408 (25.3%) reported nonadherence during the pandemic, most commonly due to concerns about their immunity. In the unadjusted model, a positive anxiety screen was associated with nonadherence to systemic immune-modifying therapy [odds ratio (OR) 1.37, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07-1.76]. Specifically, anxiety was associated with nonadherence to targeted therapy (OR 1.41, 95% CI 1.01-1.96) but not standard systemic therapy (OR 1.16, 95% CI 0.81-1.67). In the adjusted model, although the directions of the effects remained, anxiety was not significantly associated with nonadherence to overall systemic (OR 1.20, 95% CI 0.92-1.56) or targeted (OR 1.33, 95% CI 0.94-1.89) immune-modifying therapy. A positive depression screen was not strongly associated with nonadherence to systemic immune-modifying therapy in the unadjusted (OR 1.22, 95% CI 0.94-1.57) or adjusted models (OR 1.14, 95% CI 0.87-1.49). CONCLUSIONS: These data indicate substantial nonadherence to immune-modifying therapy in people with psoriasis during the pandemic, with attenuation of the association with mental health after adjusting for confounders. Future research in larger populations should further explore pandemic-specific drivers of treatment nonadherence. Clear communication of the reassuring findings from population-based research regarding immune-modifying therapy-associated adverse COVID-19 risks to people with psoriasis is essential, to optimize adherence and disease outcomes.

Safety and Efficacy of the NVX-CoV2373 COVID-19 Vaccine at Completion of the Placebo-Controlled Phase of a Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: The recombinant protein-based vaccine, NVX-CoV2373, demonstrated 89.7% efficacy against COVID-19 in a phase 3, randomized, observer-blinded, placebo-controlled trial in the United Kingdom. The protocol was amended to include a blinded crossover; data to the end of the placebo-controlled phase are reported. METHODS: Adults aged 18-84 years received two doses of NVX-CoV2373 or placebo (1:1) and were monitored for virologically confirmed mild, moderate, or severe COVID-19 (onset from 7 days after second vaccination). Participants who seroconverted to immunoglobulin G (IgG) against the nucleocapsid protein and did not meet criteria for symptomatic COVID-19 were classified as having asymptomatic disease. Secondary outcomes included anti-spike (S) IgG responses, wild-type virus neutralization, and T-cell responses. RESULTS: Of 15185 participants, 13989 remained in the per-protocol efficacy population (6989 NVX-CoV2373, 7000 placebo). At a maximum of 7.5 months (median, 4.5 months) postvaccination, there were 24 cases of COVID-19 among NVX-CoV2373 recipients and 134 cases among placebo recipients, a vaccine efficacy of 82.7% (95% CI: 73.3-88.8). Vaccine efficacy was 100% (17.9-100.0) against severe disease and 76.3% (57.4-86.8) against asymptomatic disease. High anti-S and neutralization responses to vaccination were evident, together with S-protein-specific induction of interferon-γ secretion in peripheral blood T cells. Incidence of serious adverse events and adverse events of special interest were similar between groups. CONCLUSIONS: A two-dose regimen of NVX-CoV2373 conferred a high level of ongoing protection against asymptomatic, symptomatic, and severe COVID-19 through >6 months postvaccination. A gradual decrease of protection suggests that a booster dose may be indicated.

The infection risks of JAK inhibition.

INTRODUCTION: Janus Kinase inhibitors (JAKi) have shown to be highly effective in the treatment of immune-mediated inflammatory diseases. As with all immunomodulatory therapies, careful assessment of any treatment-associated infection risk is essential to inform clinical decision-making. AREAS COVERED: We summarize current literature on infection rates among the licensed JAKi using published phase II/III trial results, post-licensing and registry data. EXPERT OPINION: licensed JAKi show increased risk of infection across the class compared to placebo, most commonly affecting respiratory and urinary tracts, nasopharynx and skin. This risk is dose-dependent. Risks are similar at licensed JAKi doses to that seen with biologic therapies. The risk is compounded by other risk factors for infection, such as age and steroid co-prescription. Herpes zoster reactivation is more common with JAKi compared to other targeted immune modulation, making screening for varicella exposure and vaccination in appropriate cohorts an advisable strategy. Crucially, these small risk increases must be balanced against the known harms (including infection) of uncontrolled autoimmune disease. JAKi are a safe and potentially transformative treatment when used for appropriately selected patients.

Incidence and management of inflammatory arthritis in England before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: a population-level cohort study using OpenSAFELY.

Background: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the incidence and management of inflammatory arthritis is not understood. Routinely captured data in secure platforms, such as OpenSAFELY, offer unique opportunities to understand how care for patients with inflammatory arthritis was impacted upon by the pandemic. Our objective was to use OpenSAFELY to assess the effects of the pandemic on diagnostic incidence and care delivery for inflammatory arthritis in England and to replicate key metrics from the National Early Inflammatory Arthritis Audit. Methods: In this population-level cohort study, we used primary care and hospital data for 17·7 million adults registered with general practices using TPP health record software, to explore the following outcomes between April 1, 2019, and March 31, 2022: (1) incidence of inflammatory arthritis diagnoses (rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis, axial spondyloarthritis, and undifferentiated inflammatory arthritis) recorded in primary care; (2) time to first rheumatology assessment; (3) time to first prescription of a disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD) in primary care; and (4) choice of first DMARD. Findings: Among 17 683 500 adults, there were 31 280 incident inflammatory arthritis diagnoses recorded between April 1, 2019, and March 31, 2022. The mean age of diagnosed patients was 55·4 years (SD 16·6), 18 615 (59·5%) were female, 12 665 (40·5%) were male, and 22 925 (88·3%) of 25 960 with available ethnicity data were White. New inflammatory arthritis diagnoses decreased by 20·3% in the year commencing April, 2020, relative to the preceding year (5·1 vs 6·4 diagnoses per 10 000 adults). The median time to first rheumatology assessment was shorter during the pandemic (18 days; IQR 8-35) than before (21 days; 9-41). The proportion of patients prescribed DMARDs in primary care was similar before and during the pandemic; however, during the pandemic, fewer people were prescribed methotrexate or leflunomide, and more were prescribed sulfasalazine or hydroxychloroquine. Interpretation: Inflammatory arthritis diagnoses decreased markedly during the early phase of the pandemic. The impact on rheumatology assessment times and DMARD prescribing in primary care was less marked than might have been anticipated. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using routinely captured, near real-time data in the secure OpenSAFELY platform to benchmark care quality on a national scale, without the need for manual data collection. Funding: None.

COVID-19 admissions and mortality in patients with early inflammatory arthritis: Results from a UK national cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the risks and predictors of COVID-19 hospitalisation and mortality amongst patients with early inflammatory arthritis (EIA), recruited to the National Early Inflammatory Arthritis Audit (NEIAA). METHODS: NEIAA is an observational cohort. We included adults with EIA from Feb 2020-May 2021. Outcomes of interest were hospitalisation and death due to COVID-19, using NHS Digital linkage. Cox proportional hazards were used to calculate hazard ratios for outcomes according to initial treatment strategy, with adjustment for confounders. RESULTS: From 14 127 patients with EIA, there were 143 hospitalisations and 47 deaths due to COVID-19: incidence rates per 100 person-years of 0.93 (95% CI 0.79-1.10) for hospitalisation and 0.30 (95% CI 0.23-0.40) for death. Increasing age, male gender, comorbidities and ex-smoking were associated with increased risk of worse COVID-19 outcomes. Higher baseline DAS28 was not associated with COVID admissions (confounder adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.10; 95% CI 0.97-1.24) or mortality (aHR 1.11; 95% CI 0.90-1.37). Seropositivity was not associated with either outcome. Higher symptom burden on patient-reported measures predicted worse COVID-19 outcomes. In unadjusted models, corticosteroids associated with COVID-19 death (HR 2.29; 95% CI 1.02-5.13), and sulfasalazine monotherapy associated with COVID-19 admission (HR 1.92; 95% CI 1.04-3.56). In adjusted models, associations for corticosteroids and sulfasalazine were not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: Patient characteristics have stronger associations with COVID-19 than the initial treatment strategy in patients with EIA. An important limitation is that we have not looked at treatment changes over time.

Safety, immunogenicity, and efficacy of a COVID-19 vaccine (NVX-CoV2373) co-administered with seasonal influenza vaccines: an exploratory substudy of a randomised, observer-blinded, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: The safety and immunogenicity profile of COVID-19 vaccines when administered concomitantly with seasonal influenza vaccines have not yet been reported. We therefore aimed to report the results of a substudy within a phase 3 UK trial, by evaluating the safety, immunogenicity, and efficacy of NVX-CoV2373 when co-administered with licensed seasonal influenza vaccines. METHODS: We did a planned exploratory substudy as part of the randomised, observer-blinded, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial of the safety and efficacy of the COVID-19 vaccine (NVX-CoV2373) by co-administrating the influenza vaccine at four study hospitals in the UK. Approximately, the first 400 participants meeting the main study entry criteria-with no contraindications to influenza vaccination-were invited to join the substudy. Participants of the main study were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive two intramuscular injections of either NVX-CoV2373 (5 µg) or placebo (normal saline) 21 days apart; participants enrolled into the substudy were co-vaccinated with a single (0·5 mL) intramuscular, age-appropriate (quadrivalent influenza cell-based vaccine [Flucelvax Quadrivalent; Seqirus UK, Maidenhead] for those aged 18-64 years and adjuvanted trivalent influenza vaccine [Fluad; Seqirus UK, Maidenhead] for those ≥65 years), licensed, influenza vaccine on the opposite deltoid to that of the first study vaccine dose or placebo. The influenza vaccine was administered in an open-label manner and at the same time as the first study injection. Reactogenicity was evaluated via an electronic diary for 7 days after vaccination in addition to monitoring for unsolicited adverse events, medically attended adverse events, and serious adverse events. Immunogenicity was assessed with influenza haemagglutination inhibition and SARS-CoV-2 anti-spike protein IgG assays. Vaccine efficacy against PCR-confirmed, symptomatic COVID-19 was assessed in participants who were seronegative at baseline, received both doses of study vaccine or placebo, had no major protocol deviations affecting the primary endpoint, and had no confirmed cases of symptomatic COVID-19 from the first dose until 6 days after the second dose (per-protocol efficacy population). Immunogenicity was assessed in participants who received scheduled two doses of study vaccine, had a baseline sample and at least one post-vaccination sample, and had no major protocol violations before unmasking (per-protocol immunogenicity population). Reactogenicity was analysed in all participants who received at least one dose of NVX-CoV2373 or placebo and had data collected for reactogenicity events. Safety was analysed in all participants who received at least one dose of NVX-CoV2373 or placebo. Comparisons were made between participants of the substudy and the main study (who were not co-vaccinated for influenza). This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT04583995. FINDINGS: Between Sept 28, 2020, and Nov 28, 2020, a total of 15 187 participants were randomised into the main phase 3 trial, of whom 15 139 received treatment (7569 received dose one of NVX-CoV2373 and 7570 received dose one of placebo). 431 participants were co-vaccinated with a seasonal influenza vaccine in the substudy (217 received NVX-CoV2373 plus the influenza vaccine and 214 received placebo plus the influenza vaccine). In general, the substudy participants were younger, more racially diverse, and had fewer comorbid conditions than those in the main study. Reactogenicity events were more common in the co-administration group than in the NVX-CoV2373 alone group: tenderness (113 [64·9%] of 174 vs 592 [53·3%] of 1111) or pain (69 [39·7%] vs 325 [29·3%]) at injection site, fatigue (48 [27·7%] vs 215 [19·4%]), and muscle pain (49 [28·3%] vs 237 [21·4%]). Incidences of unsolicited adverse events, treatment-related medically attended adverse events, and serious adverse events were low and balanced between the co-administration group and the NVX-CoV2373 alone group. No episodes of anaphylaxis or deaths were reported within the substudy. Co-administration resulted in no change to influenza vaccine immune response although a reduction in antibody responses to the NVX-CoV2373 vaccine was noted. NVX-CoV2373 vaccine efficacy in the substudy (ie, participants aged 18 to <65 years) was 87·5% (95% CI -0·2 to 98·4) and in the main study was 89·8% (95% CI 79·7-95·5). INTERPRETATION: To our knowledge, this substudy is the first to show the safety, immunogenicity, and efficacy profile of a COVID-19 vaccine when co-administered with seasonal influenza vaccines. Our results suggest concomitant vaccination might be a viable immunisation strategy. FUNDING: Novavax.

Systematic literature review informing the 2022 EULAR recommendations for screening and prophylaxis of chronic and opportunistic infections in adults with autoimmune inflammatory rheumatic diseases.

OBJECTIVE: To conduct a systematic literature review (SLR) on the screening and prophylaxis of opportunistic and chronic infections in autoimmune inflammatory rheumatic diseases (AIIRD). METHODS: SLR (inception-12/2021) based on the following search domains: (1) infectious agents, (2) AIIRD, (3) immunosuppressives/immunomodulators used in rheumatology, (4) screening terms and (5) prophylaxis terms. Articles were retrieved having the terms from (1) AND (2) AND (3) plus terms from (4) OR(5). Databases searched: PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library. EXCLUSION CRITERIA: studies on postoperative infections, paediatric AIIRD, COVID-19, vaccinations and non-Εnglish literature. Study quality was assessed with Newcastle-Ottawa scale for non-randomised controlled trials (RCTs), RoB-Cochrane for RCTs, AMSTAR2 for SLRs. RESULTS: From 5641 studies were retrieved, 568 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility, with 194 articles finally included. For tuberculosis, tuberculin skin test (TST) is affected by treatment with glucocorticoids and conventional synthetic disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs) and its performance is inferior to interferon gamma release assay (IGRA). Agreement between TST and IGRA is moderate to low. For hepatitis B virus (HBV): risk of reactivation is increased in patients positive for hepatitis B surface antigen. Anti-HBcore positive patients are at low risk for reactivation but should be monitored periodically with liver function tests and/or HBV-viral load. Risk for Hepatitis C reactivation is existing but low in patients treated with biological DMARDs. For Pneumocystis jirovecii, prophylaxis treatment should be considered in patients treated with prednisolone ≥15-30 mg/day for >2-4 weeks. CONCLUSIONS: Different screening and prophylaxis approaches are described in the literature, partly determined by individual patient and disease characteristics.

Demographics and Outcomes of Initial Phase of COVID-19 Medicines Delivery Units Across 4 UK Centers During Peak B1.1.529 Omicron Epidemic: A Service Evaluation.

Background: COVID-19 medicines delivery units (CMDU) were established in late December 2021 to deliver early antiviral therapy to patients classified as at risk with the aim of preventing hospitalization. Methods: We performed a service evaluation at 4 CMDUs in England. We assessed demographics and triage outcomes of CMDU referral, uptake of antiviral therapy, and the rate of subsequent hospitalizations within 2 weeks of CMDU referral. Results: Over a 3-week period, 4788 patients were referred and 3989 were ultimately assessed by a CMDU. Overall, 832 of the patients referred (17%) were judged eligible for treatment and 628 (13%) were ultimately prescribed an antiviral agent. The overall rate of admission within 14 days was 1%. Patients who were admitted were significantly older than those who did not require hospitalization. Of patients prescribed molnupiravir and sotrovimab, 1.8% and 3.2%, respectively, were admitted. Conclusions: There was a high volume of referrals to CMDU service during the initial surge of the Omicron wave in the United Kingdom. A minority of patients were judged to be eligible for therapy. In a highly vaccinated population, the overall hospitalization rate was low.

High numbers of COVID-19 patients transit through non-COVID wards, and associated healthcare workers have high infection rates: An observational cross-sectional study.

Infection risk is high in healthcare workers working with COVID-19 patients but the risk in non-COVID clinical environments is less clear. We measured infection rates early in the pandemic by SARS-CoV-2 antibody and/or a positive PCR test in 1118 HCWs within various hospital environments with particular focus on non-COVID clinical areas. Infection risk on non-COVID wards was estimated through the surrogate metric of numbers of patients transferred from a non-COVID to a COVID ward. Staff infection rates increased with likelihood of COVID exposure and suggested high risk in non-COVID clinical areas (non patient-facing 23.2% versus patient-facing in either non-COVID environments 31.5% or COVID wards 44%). High numbers of patients admitted to COVID wards had initially been admitted to designated non-COVID wards (22-48% at peak). Infection risk was high during a pandemic in all clinical environments and non-COVID designation may provide false reassurance. Our findings support the need for common personal protective equipment standards in all clinical areas, irrespective of COVID/non-COVID designation.

Evaluation of incidence of COVID-19 infection and uptake of COVID-19 vaccine in sarcoidosis patients at a tertiary centre

Background/Aims Sarcoidosis is a multi-system inflammatory disorder, characterised by the formation of non-caseating granulomas. In the UK, a decision was made to include sarcoid patients in the clinically extremely vulnerable group, and they were advised to shield during the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigated the incidence of covid-19 infection and uptake of COVID-19 vaccine within this patient group. Methods Consecutive patients attending the King’s College Hospital sarcoidosis clinic over 18 months between 1st January 2018 and 31st August 2020, and were still alive on 31st January 2020, were included in this report. Electronic primary care records and hospital records were reviewed for each patient to evaluate the incidence of RT-PCT confirmed covid-19 infection, hospitalisation, and vaccination status, defined as at least one vaccination. Hospitalisation data was available from four South-East London trusts. Results The King’s College Hospital database identified 416 patients with biopsy confirmed sarcoidosis. Of the complete cohort, the median age was 55.7 years, 193 patients (46%) were male, and 178 patients (43%) were of black ethnicity. A proportion of patients were taking prednisolone (n = 116, 28%) and DMARDs (n = 73, 18%). The incidence of RT-PCR confirmed covid-19 infection was 48/416 patients (12%). Of these infections, 16/48 (33%) were prior to vaccine availability, including one patient who required an intensive care admission. Post vaccine availability, 9/32 infections were in vaccinated individuals, 8/32 in unvaccinated and 15/32 were of unknown timing;there were 2 recorded hospital admissions but no intensive care admissions, neither patient was immunosuppressed and one was unvaccinated. Uptake of at least one covid-19 vaccine was 287/416 patients (69%). Of the cohort who opted not to have a vaccine (n = 129), the median age was 53.7 years, 60 patients (47%) were male, 58 (45%) were black ethnicity and 22 (17%) were white ethnicity. The only demographic variable to predict covid-19 vaccine uptake was ethnicity;patients of black ethnicity were less likely to have the vaccine than those of white ethnicity (OR = 0.56, p = 0.041). In vaccinated individuals, there were 9/287 cases (3%) of RT-PCT confirmed covid-19 infection, of which one patient required hospitalisation but not intensive care. Conclusion The incidence of covid-19 infection in our cohort is comparable to that of London (12%), despite an extremely clinically vulnerable population. Vaccine uptake was lower in sarcoid patients (69%) than the national comparator in adults (90%) and was especially low in the black ethnic population. Disclosure D. Nagra: None. S.A. Gunawardana: None. K. Bechman: None. S. Birring: None. A. Patel: None. J. Galloway: None.

The impact of consecutive COVID-19 lockdowns in England on mental wellbeing in people with inflammatory arthritis.

BACKGROUND: During the first UK COVID-19 lockdown, studies identified over half of inflammatory arthritis (IA) patients in the UK reported a worsening of emotional distress. Given the prolonged nature of the pandemic, and the strict 'shielding' restrictions imposed on 'extremely clinically vulnerable' populations, it is likely that the implementation of the second lockdown period in England, during November 2020, may also have had a negative impact on the mental health of IA patients. The aim of this study was to qualitatively explore the impact of consecutive lockdown periods on mental wellbeing in people with IA. METHODS: Nine IA patients took part in semi-structured telephone interviews at both baseline (June/July 2020) and follow-up (November 2020). The interview schedule, which was developed and piloted with a Patient Research Partner, explored patient experiences and mental health impacts of the COVID-19 lockdown periods. Interviews were analysed using inductive thematic analysis. RESULTS: Five males and four females, with rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis, or spondylarthritis, aged between 24-79 years (mean = 49.9, SD = 20.9) were included in the sample. Four main themes impacting on mental wellbeing were identified from the data: (1) Pandemic fatigue versus pandemic acclimatisation, (2) Social interaction and isolation, (3) Clarity of information, (4) Seasonal changes. CONCLUSION: The first two COVID-19 lockdown periods in England had an ongoing impact on the mental health of patients with IA. Healthcare professionals, in conjunction with government support, should ensure that adequate information and mental health resources are available to support IA patients during periods of ongoing restrictions, whilst also continuing to encourage behaviours which promote good mental health and wellbeing.

Risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes associated with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases and immune-modifying therapies: a nationwide cohort study in the OpenSAFELY platform.

Background: The risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes in people with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases and on immune-modifying drugs might not be fully mediated by comorbidities and might vary by factors such as ethnicity. We aimed to assess the risk of severe COVID-19 in adults with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases and in those on immune-modifying therapies. Methods: We did a cohort study, using OpenSAFELY (an analytics platform for electronic health records) and TPP (a software provider for general practitioners), analysing routinely collected primary care data linked to hospital admission, death, and previously unavailable hospital prescription data. We included people aged 18 years or older on March 1, 2020, who were registered with TPP practices with at least 12 months of primary care records before March, 2020. We used Cox regression (adjusting for confounders and mediators) to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) comparing the risk of COVID-19-related death, critical care admission or death, and hospital admission (from March 1 to Sept 30, 2020) in people with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases compared with the general population, and in people with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases on targeted immune-modifying drugs (eg, biologics) compared with those on standard systemic treatment (eg, methotrexate). Findings: We identified 17 672 065 adults; 1 163 438 adults (640 164 [55·0%] women and 523 274 [45·0%] men, and 827 457 [71·1%] of White ethnicity) had immune-mediated inflammatory diseases, and 16 508 627 people (8 215 020 [49·8%] women and 8 293 607 [50·2%] men, and 10 614 096 [64·3%] of White ethnicity) were included as the general population. Of 1 163 438 adults with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases, 19 119 (1·6%) received targeted immune-modifying therapy and 181 694 (15·6%) received standard systemic therapy. Compared with the general population, adults with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases had an increased risk of COVID-19-related death after adjusting for confounders (age, sex, deprivation, and smoking status; HR 1·23, 95% CI 1·20-1·27) and further adjusting for mediators (body-mass index [BMI], cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and current glucocorticoid use; 1·15, 1·11-1·18). Adults with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases also had an increased risk of COVID-19-related critical care admission or death (confounder-adjusted HR 1·24, 95% CI 1·21-1·28; mediator-adjusted 1·16, 1·12-1·19) and hospital admission (confounder-adjusted 1·32, 1·29-1·35; mediator-adjusted 1·20, 1·17-1·23). In post-hoc analyses, the risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes in people with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases was higher in non-White ethnic groups than in White ethnic groups (as it was in the general population). We saw no evidence of increased COVID-19-related death in adults on targeted, compared with those on standard systemic, therapy after adjusting for confounders (age, sex, deprivation, BMI, immune-mediated inflammatory diseases [bowel, joint, and skin], cardiovascular disease, cancer [excluding non-melanoma skin cancer], stroke, and diabetes (HR 1·03, 95% CI 0·80-1·33), and after additionally adjusting for current glucocorticoid use (1·01, 0·78-1·30). There was no evidence of increased COVID-19-related death in adults prescribed tumour necrosis factor inhibitors, interleukin (IL)-12/IL­23 inhibitors, IL-17 inhibitors, IL-6 inhibitors, or Janus kinase inhibitors compared with those on standard systemic therapy. Rituximab was associated with increased COVID-19-related death (HR 1·68, 95% CI 1·11-2·56), with some attenuation after excluding people with haematological malignancies or organ transplants (1·54, 0·95-2·49). Interpretation: COVID-19 deaths and hospital admissions were higher in people with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases. We saw no increased risk of adverse COVID-19 outcomes in those on most targeted immune-modifying drugs for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases compared with those on standard systemic therapy. Funding: UK Medical Research Council, NIHR Biomedical Research Centre at King's College London and Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust, and Wellcome Trust.

A comprehensive high cost drugs dataset from the NHS in England - An OpenSAFELY-TPP Short Data Report.

Background: At the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was no routine comprehensive hospital medicines data from the UK available to researchers. These records can be important for many analyses including the effect of certain medicines on the risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes. With the approval of NHS England, we set out to obtain data on one specific group of medicines, "high-cost drugs" (HCD) which are typically specialist medicines for the management of long-term conditions, prescribed by hospitals to patients. Additionally, we aimed to make these data available to all approved researchers in OpenSAFELY-TPP. This report is intended to support all studies carried out in OpenSAFELY-TPP, and those elsewhere, working with this dataset or similar data. Methods: Working with the North East Commissioning Support Unit and NHS Digital, we arranged for collation of a single national HCD dataset to help inform responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. The dataset was developed from payment submissions from hospitals to commissioners. Results: In the financial year (FY) 2018/19 there were 2.8 million submissions for 1.1 million unique patient IDs recorded in the HCD. The average number of submissions per patient over the year was 2.6. In FY 2019/20 there were 4.0 million submissions for 1.3 million unique patient IDs. The average number of submissions per patient over the year was 3.1. Of the 21 variables in the dataset, three are now available for analysis in OpenSafely-TPP: Financial year and month of drug being dispensed; drug name; and a description of the drug dispensed. Conclusions: We have described the process for sourcing a national HCD dataset, making these data available for COVID-19-related analysis through OpenSAFELY-TPP and provided information on the variables included in the dataset, data coverage and an initial descriptive analysis.

The impact of COVID-19 on clinical care, self-management and mental health of patients with inflammatory arthritis.

OBJECTIVES: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdown and ongoing restrictions in the UK affected access to clinical care, self-management and mental health for many patients with inflammatory arthritis. The aim of this study was to determine the impact of lockdown on inflammatory arthritis clinical care, self-management, disease outcomes and mental health. METHODS: In total, 338 people with inflammatory arthritis participated in a prospective study, completing a series of online questionnaires. The questionnaires assessed demographics, inflammatory arthritis condition and management, clinical care, quality of life and mental health. Visual analogue scales (VASs) were completed at each assessment. Linear regression, controlling for confounders, was conducted to determine factors associated with physical and mental health outcomes. RESULTS: More than half of participants reported worsening VAS by >10 points for patient global assessment (PGA), pain, fatigue and emotional distress during the initial lockdown. Changes in clinical care were associated with worse PGA (b = 8.95, P = 0.01), pain (b = 7.13, P = 0.05), fatigue (b = 17.01, P < 0.01) and emotional distress (b = 12.78, P < 0.01). Emotional distress and depression were also associated with worse outcomes in PGA, pain and fatigue, whereas loneliness was not. In contrast, physical activity seemed to mitigate these effects. Loneliness did not show any associations with outcomes. Over time, these effects decreased or disappeared. CONCLUSION: Changes to clinical care owing to lockdown were associated with worse disease outcomes in patients with inflammatory arthritis. There has also been a clear impact on mental health, with possibly complex relationships between mental health and psychosocial factors. Physical activity emerged as a key influence on disease outcomes and mental health.

The impact of COVID-19 on self-management behaviours and healthcare access for people with inflammatory arthritis.

BACKGROUND: Inflammatory arthritis (IA) patients have been identified as at greater risk of severe illness from COVID-19. It is likely that lockdown restrictions (enforced by the UK government in response to the COVID-19 pandemic) and subsequent changes made to healthcare provision could impact patients' abilities to effectively manage their condition. The aim of this study was to qualitatively explore the impact of COVID-19 on self-management behaviours and healthcare access for people with IA. METHODS: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 21 IA patients in June-July 2020, with nine follow-up interviews in November 2020. Interview schedules were developed with a Patient Research Partner and explored participants' experiences of the COVID-19 pandemic. Interviews were conducted via telephone and analysed using inductive thematic analysis. RESULTS: Participants were aged between 24 and 79 years (mean = 50.1, SD = 15.8), largely female (71%) and White British (86%). Four initial themes were identified: (1) Impact of COVID-19 on medication adherence, (2) Impact of COVID-19 on physical activity, (3) Impact of COVID-19 on diet, and (4) Impact of COVID-19 on healthcare access and delivery. Subthemes focused on positive and negative changes made to these areas, as well as behaviours which remained consistent. Follow-up interviews highlighted differences in participants' experiences during the two lockdown periods. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 has affected patients' abilities to manage their IA. Healthcare professionals need to recognise the ongoing impact of COVID-19 on patient self-management and healthcare access to ensure that adequate understanding and support is available to patients who may have inadequate disease control as a result.

A Knowledge Distillation Ensemble Framework for Predicting Short- and Long-Term Hospitalization Outcomes From Electronic Health Records Data.

The ability to perform accurate prognosis is crucial for proactive clinical decision making, informed resource management and personalised care. Existing outcome prediction models suffer from a low recall of infrequent positive outcomes. We present a highly-scalable and robust machine learning framework to automatically predict adversity represented by mortality and ICU admission and readmission from time-series of vital signs and laboratory results obtained within the first 24 hours of hospital admission. The stacked ensemble platform comprises two components: a) an unsupervised LSTM Autoencoder that learns an optimal representation of the time-series, using it to differentiate the less frequent patterns which conclude with an adverse event from the majority patterns that do not, and b) a gradient boosting model, which relies on the constructed representation to refine prediction by incorporating static features. The model is used to assess a patient's risk of adversity and provides visual justifications of its prediction. Results of three case studies show that the model outperforms existing platforms in ICU and general ward settings, achieving average Precision-Recall Areas Under the Curve (PR-AUCs) of 0.891 (95% CI: 0.878-0.939) for mortality and 0.908 (95% CI: 0.870-0.935) in predicting ICU admission and readmission.

Inpatient COVID-19 mortality has reduced over time: Results from an observational cohort.

BACKGROUND: The Covid-19 pandemic in the United Kingdom has seen two waves; the first starting in March 2020 and the second in late October 2020. It is not known whether outcomes for those admitted with severe Covid were different in the first and second waves. METHODS: The study population comprised all patients admitted to a 1,500-bed London Hospital Trust between March 2020 and March 2021, who tested positive for Covid-19 by PCR within 3-days of admissions. Primary outcome was death within 28-days of admission. Socio-demographics (age, sex, ethnicity), hypertension, diabetes, obesity, baseline physiological observations, CRP, neutrophil, chest x-ray abnormality, remdesivir and dexamethasone were incorporated as co-variates. Proportional subhazards models compared mortality risk between wave 1 and wave 2. Cox-proportional hazard model with propensity score adjustment were used to compare mortality in patients prescribed remdesivir and dexamethasone. RESULTS: There were 3,949 COVID-19 admissions, 3,195 hospital discharges and 733 deaths. There were notable differences in age, ethnicity, comorbidities, and admission disease severity between wave 1 and wave 2. Twenty-eight-day mortality was higher during wave 1 (26.1% versus 13.1%). Mortality risk adjusted for co-variates was significantly lower in wave 2 compared to wave 1 [adjSHR 0.49 (0.37, 0.65) p<0.001]. Analysis of treatment impact did not show statistically different effects of remdesivir [HR 0.84 (95%CI 0.65, 1.08), p = 0.17] or dexamethasone [HR 0.97 (95%CI 0.70, 1.35) p = 0.87]. CONCLUSION: There has been substantial improvements in COVID-19 mortality in the second wave, even accounting for demographics, comorbidity, and disease severity. Neither dexamethasone nor remdesivir appeared to be key explanatory factors, although there may be unmeasured confounding present.